SiMPL #011 Decoding Everyday Decisions Part 2: Why We Make Them (and Justify ’Em After)

Last week, we explored decision hacks for everyday choices, whether you’re scrolling through Netflix or tackling a home remodel. This week, let’s dive into the “why” behind our decisions and how we skillfully justify them afterward. Spoiler alert: we all have biases, and we’re experts at rationalizing our choices to make them seem perfectly reasonable.

Option B sounds realistic, right? Well, that’s only the average number of times you decide on food! The actual average? A whopping 35,000 decisions a day. But more on that later…

What’s Behind This Reasoning?

A decision is usually a basic process. Stephen Carter, in Decision Making Deconstructed, describes it simply: we start, make a snap judgment, then rationalize that judgment.

Step 1: The Beginning

So, how does it all begin? It depends on your level of engagement. Are you fully engaged, semi-engaged, or just indifferent? The way we approach decisions varies with our engagement.

Let’s test that theory: what’s my go-to comfort movie? (Hint: regular readers might already know.)

Today, in our hyper-connected world, people often hover between semi-engaged and unengaged. Take politics, for example. Here are three ways people might sum up the U.S. election:

A) Trump is pro-business, while Kamala is pro-freedom.

B) Trump is campaigning in unlikely Republican states, while Kamala sticks to strategic ones.

C) Kamala supports women and the LGBTQ+ community, while Trump mainly appeals to men.

D) Wait, when is the election again?

If you chose A, you might be unengaged. B is for the hyper-engaged (like me), C is semi-engaged, and D … well, I get it. Politics has made a lot of us numb.

It’s like my reaction to reggaeton or pop artists—people talk about it, but I barely notice. No stress, no mental fatigue; it doesn’t affect my decisions at all.

But when you’re hyper-engaged, you know exactly what you want. The decision is easy or even pre-made. For instance, if I’m shopping for a phone, I already know which model I’ll buy.

The problem lies with the semi-engaged crowd, where two options weigh equally, making the choice exhausting.

Imagine a Super Bowl BBQ at a friend’s place:

• Hyper-engaged: Knows all the stats, every team’s history.

• Engaged: Knows and enjoys the game, but isn’t a fanatic.

• Unengaged: Is more into the snacks and halftime show, asking questions like, “Who scored?” or “Is that your team?”

• Semi-engaged: Feels the pressure to know as much as the super-fans, wanting to cheer but unsure if Taylor Swift’s boyfriend’s team is the right choice!

Step 2: Judgment

This is where our biases and motivations come into play. Judgments rely on three factors (introduced in part 1):

• Frequency: How often have you done this?

• Complexity: Is it easy or difficult to accomplish?

• Novelty: How new or intriguing is it to you?

Take making pizza. Ever tried it? Kneading, stretching, shaping the dough, tossing it in the air, adding toppings, and then getting it in and out of the oven without burning it—it’s tough! But for a seasoned pizzaiolo, it’s second nature. They do it frequently, have mastered the complexity, and aren’t daunted by novelty.

Some call it “beginner’s luck,” but it’s actually the Dunning-Kruger Effect: confidence grows with experience. As beginners, we think we’re better than we are; as we gain expertise, we realize how much we still don’t know. Here’s a cool video that explains it better than I can.

Step 3: Reason (Bias & Rational)

Every decision has a “why.” Often, we’re unaware of it, but it’s there. The surrounding conditions shape our choices as much as our conscious reasoning. For example, the Netflix choice, explored in part 1, depends on factors like:

• Are you tired?

• Are you comfortable?

• How much time do you have?

• Who’s with you?

No choice is a cold calculation; it’s a mix of emotions, morality, and logic, creating biases we may not even notice. And when we finally make a choice, we use rationalization to justify it afterward.

A study by Cornell University found that we make an average of 35,000 decisions a day—226 of them about food alone! It’s no wonder decision fatigue kicks in. To keep from getting overwhelmed, we rationalize. Take my recent 3 p.m. coffee as an example—I convinced myself I needed it to finish this newsletter. Rationalizing helps us cope with reality without overthinking every tiny choice.

Picture yourself being consciously aware of all 35,000 choices you make each day, along with the ripple of consequences that follow. That would be overwhelming! Rationalization is a mental shortcut, letting us move forward without getting stuck.

And yes, consequences are a huge part of decision-making. Every choice we make has its own ripple effect, shaping our lives in ways big and small.

Imagine a friend hands you a movie ticket, no details given, and you decide to go with it. You settle in, popcorn ready, and the movie begins. Suddenly, you’re watching a guy—a total maniac—wreaking havoc, tearing through the city based on things like ethnicity, car taste, career paths, even fashion choices. Public property is getting trashed, a hotel’s under siege, chaos everywhere. You’d probably leave thinking, “Well, that was one intense slasher flick!”

But now, add one small scene: those same people kill his puppy—the very one his late wife gave him. Suddenly, his rampage isn’t random; it’s personal. Now you’re not just watching—you’re rooting for him.

Yep, you guessed it: John Wick. All it took was one scene, and we empathize with his choices because we understand his motivation—grief, love, revenge. It’s a reminder that empathy and rationalization add layers to our decisions, whether it’s rooting for a fictional antihero or just picking what to watch on a Friday night.

In Power and Prediction, authors Ajay Agrawal, Avi Goldfarb, and Joshua Gans argue that during COVID-19, decisions led by AI might have resulted in fewer deaths and less economic impact. Our responses were heavily influenced by fear and the comfort of familiar solutions, even when the pandemic demanded new approaches.

Machines, however, lack this bias and just follow the data—another difference between AI and human decision-making, which I’ll explore in a future newsletter.

Now, Story Time: My Dunning-Kruger moment

Back in 2020, during the COVID-19 lockdown, I found myself coming off a high-intensity job. I hadn’t taken a real vacation in years, mostly filling my time with work-related tasks. Sure, I’d find moments to cook, BBQ, or bake bread, but I wasn’t truly present.

For years, I’d been living the entrepreneur’s life, and if you know any entrepreneurs, you’ll get this: it’s like a benign disease. The entrepreneurial bug changes your mindset, like taking the red pill in The Matrix. Once you’re in, you see problems and solutions everywhere and never quite go back to “normal.”

During that time, I had to prioritize like never before. I was responsible for taking care of my grandma and auntie, and their well-being was infinitely more important to me than gossip about tardiness or minor workplace drama. Getting my job done was way more important than fixing self-made problems that didn’t affect clients. In fact, understanding my clients’ needs became the best part of my day, and I still love that part.

Before this, my last big project—probably one of the largest I’ve ever taken on—was as a data consultant for a presidential campaign in Panama. I learned a lot about how political parties can move and convince hundreds of thousands through complex marketing strategies. But let me tell you: those people know how to create drama to feel useful. They practically thrive on it! I was behind the data, so I didn’t get a break. If someone needed urgent charts or uncovered new data to correlate, I was called in, no matter the hour. In hindsight, I think I did it for the passion for data, since I wasn’t exactly paid that well, haha.

(Here’s a little wisdom for you: Politician Drama Queens are the ultimate Drama Queens!)

When the campaign wrapped up in mid-2019, I jumped straight into a managerial role at a bank, leading the transformation department in banking processes and continuous improvement. There was no rest. I started the day after Election Day. Around 1 or 2 a.m., I got picked up from the campaign’s operational center. The president I’d supported won, so celebrations were kicking off, but I had to rest because my “real” job was starting in the morning. I was going after financial stability after years of underpaid consulting and entrepreneurial debt, with responsibilities weighing on me.

I felt lucky in that job. My boss is still a friend, my team was great, and we worked hard—typically more than 10 hours a day, juggling transformation committees, regional projects, audits, you name it. And I even got to “play” with robots! One of my supervisors had an automation project with RPA that I helped bring to life. Coming from my entrepreneurial run, working at the bank felt like a breeze. But it cost me a lot.

I’d become so immersed in my “job life” that I barely hung out with friends or saw my girlfriend, who, miraculously, I convinced to marry me! I was taking calls on the way to dinners, in the grocery store, and even working Sundays to nail that perfect presentation for the board of directors.

Then COVID-19 hit, and everything stopped. Work-from-home orders meant things slowed down. I finally had time to read the long sagas I’d been wanting to—The Lord of the Rings, all the Dune books (yes, all of them), Cien Años de Soledad (One Hundred Years of Solitude), and even binge-watch Friends and The Office with my wife and brother-in-law.

At that point I decided to learn a new language, but as I mentioned in a previous newsletter, procrastination did its play.

And this is when I had my Dunning-Kruger moment.

I was scrolling through the marketplace when I spotted it—a listing for a guitar. I’d always wanted to learn, so I thought, why not? Snap judgment made, I grabbed it. It was a cheap blue Squier, but to me, it might as well have been a Fender Stratocaster.

Stage 1: The Confident Beginner (with 0 Experience)

I started out with YouTube tutorials, strumming along to Bob Marley and Tom Petty songs. They were slow enough that I had time to think about each chord, carefully placing my (very stiff) fingers in the right spots, one at a time. (Big thanks to Marty from YouTube—my first guitar teacher! If you’re learning guitar, seriously, check him out).

After just a couple of weeks, I was brimming with confidence. I even “learned” Iron Man by Black Sabbath. And by “learned,” I mean that in some distant universe, it sort of sounded like the song. But hey, I felt unstoppable!

Stage 2: Downfall to Reality—Confidence Breaks

Feeling like I had mastered the basics, I ambitiously took on One by Metallica and Fear of the Dark by Iron Maiden. I was convinced this was the next step in my journey. Months passed, and I played the same riffs on repeat, trying to nail them. My confidence? Through the roof.

Then, one day, my wife—out of love, or maybe just to get a break from hearing the same riffs over and over—surprised me with a guitar lesson voucher for our anniversary. So I went in, feeling pretty proud of myself. Ten minutes into my first lesson, though, my teacher took me down a few notches. As he started breaking down basic technique, timing, and theory, it hit me: I knew… nothing.

The Reality Check Moment

I was staring reality in the face, and, man, it was humbling. My tempo was shaky, my technique was raw, and let’s just say I wasn’t even tuning my guitar properly. But here’s the thing: that feedback was priceless. My teacher didn’t just tell me what I was doing wrong; he showed me the exercises I needed to strengthen my fingers, guided me through understanding the notes, and helped me find the right tempo.

Those small adjustments and consistent practice were eye-opening. With each lesson, I improved bit by bit, gaining just enough skill to see how far I still had to go. And with every improvement, I learned more about the true journey of becoming a musician—and how overconfident my beginner self had been.

Stage 3: The Hard, Long, Metronome-Based Road to Knowledge

Now, years later, I’m still on this journey, and it’s as challenging as ever—but in the best way. Every practice session brings fresh exercises and new feedback, keeping me on my toes. I’ve learned to rely on my metronome for almost every exercise, building consistency and control. Trying out different genres and pushing my dexterity has been the slow, steady climb that real growth requires.

Music is a humbling art. It reminds you that there’s always more to learn, no matter how far you think you’ve come. If you’re interested in guitar lessons, let me give a shoutout to my teacher, Carlos Owen, who was just named the Best Guitarist in Panama in 2024. You’ll be in great hands—here’s his instagram … and a video if you want to check out his!

The journey may be endless, but every note along the way makes it worth it.

So, How Do You Make Great Decisions?

Honestly, there’s no formula. We’re all different, with unique biases and environments. But if we learn from the Dunning-Kruger effect, we can be more intentional. Luck, after all, is just when preparation meets opportunity.

Or as Thomas Jefferson said:

Wait a minute… then how do machines make decisions?

In our upcoming newsletters, we’ll dive into a new perspective: How do machines make decisions? Stick around as we unpack the fascinating world of AI decision-making and explore how it compares—and contrasts—with our own human processes.

Book Recommendation: Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

You may know this book better by its cinematic title, Blade Runner. After finishing I, Robot, Amazon—the all-knowing AI nudging us towards our next purchase—recommended Blade Runner the book, and I thought, why not? This novel is a fantastic piece of sci-fi, going much deeper than the cyberpunk themes of the film. It dives into the twisted journey of Rick Deckard, a bounty hunter caught between his mission and his own humanity. Dick’s writing plants seeds of doubt not only in Rick’s mind but also in the reader’s: Is Deckard truly human? And just when you think you know, the story throws in new twists and side plots that make you question everything.

There’s a strange part where Rick tries to prove his humanity by, well, having a fling with an “andy.” Its a book about Rationalizing in a world where Androids are getting harder to distinguitsh from humans. Rick is attempting to convince himself he’s still human, which shows how messy our self-justifications can get! All the while, animals—rare and precious—are valued more than the androids he’s hunting, adding yet another layer of complexity.

So, what’s it all about? Same as the Movie?… well somehow…

Let’s dive into Philip K. Dick’s Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, the novel that inspired Blade Runner—that iconic movie with Harrison Ford and directed by Ridley Scott (yes, the same visionary behind Alien and Gladiator). Scott’s take is undeniably cool and haunting, but Dick’s novel goes even deeper into the moral quagmire of identity and humanity. I’d say Dick, like Scott, was a true futurist, probing questions that still resonate today.

The book takes readers on an intense exploration of what it means to be human—and the messy decisions we make to justify our existence. In his work as a bounty hunter, Rick Deckard begins to spiral into self-doubt after discovering that another hunter, whom he saw as an equal, is an android, yet doesn’t even realize it. This revelation plants a gnawing doubt in Rick, forcing him to question his own humanity and make impulsive choices in an attempt to convince himself he’s different from the “andys” he hunts.

In the story, Rick tries to justify his own humanity through a series of impulsive, sometimes absurd decisions—like buying a goat or even attempting a relationship with an android. This internal conflict, where he oscillates between self-doubt and self-rationalization, is one of the story’s most compelling aspects. As Dick writes, “Maybe he’s right, Rick thought as he watched the goat being unloaded from the truck. I’m buying my way into the human race, again.”

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? is a gritty reminder that our identities are fragile as fuck—shaped as much by the choices we make as by the doubts we harbor. If you’re intrigued by what really makes us human, this book is a must-read.